“For the world is changing: I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, and I smell it in the air. I do not think that we shall meet again.”

So says Fangorn the Ent (also known as Treebeard) to Galadriel and Celeborn in the chapter Many Partings in The Return of the King.

These are as good a collection of words as any to express the state of our world today.

With the brazen attack by the United States on Venezuela and the capture of its president Nicolás Maduro what once felt like a braggart’s empty words have become real action in the real world.

Up until this time the nations of the world have largely agreed upon a certain set of spoken and unspoken rules that kept order (at least amongst the wealthiest of nations) preserving power where it lay. Certainly there have been ongoing proxy wars between the United States, Russia and China, largely in states like Syria, Iran, and North Korea etc. and this was deemed acceptable.

Than in 2014 Russia sent troops into Ukraine and took Crimea and there were no consequences of merit. Oh there were sanctions etc., but Russia has an enormous amount of natural resources and can, largely, continue regardless of sanctions. Throughout this the United States watched.

In 2022 Russia grew even bolder and attacked Ukraine leading to a more than three year conflict (so far). They have taken large amounts of territory since and the world yelled louder. There were more sanctions. Still, there were no real consequences. Certainly Sweden and Finland joined Nato to Russia’s chagrin but Nato, like the rest of the world, has largely existed by the rules of the old world – threats and words without action. Throughout this the United States watched.

In 2023 following the October 7th massacre led by Hamas, Israel invaded Gaza and the United States and the world watched continuing to yell. Note – some would say this is not an invasion because it is soverereing Israeli territory. We leave history to judge.

In 2026 the United States invaded Venezuela…and the world watches, and the world yells.

Since 2014 the United States and the rest of the world have come to learn that the consequences of invading and dominating the sovereign territory of another nation are less than the benefits to the invader. The world yells. The United Nations does what it does best – nothing; Nato frets and the world moves on.

Since the invasion of Venezuela the U.S. has made it clear in the words of Donald Trump “American dominance in the Western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump said.

They have put Cuba, Columbia, Mexico and Greenland (Denmark) on notice.

Two weeks ago if you would have asked me if the U.S. would invade Venezuela, capture its president and bring him to trial in New York City I would have said no. I would have said it would be a cold war of embargo and capture of oil shipping until the regime collapsed.

With the statement that the U.S. is in charge of the western hemisphere you can bet a few things. You can bet China is watching and listening. You can bet Taiwan is nervous. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is now a very real liklihood.

With these things happening the world is rapidly re-arming. Germany and Japan are rebuilding their military capabilities. Europe as a whole is rebuilding.

With Trump leaning heavily on Greenland, Europe must consider the reality of a war on two-fronts, Ukraine to the east and Greenland to the west. Europe cannot manage this kind of conflict. I imagine Europe would concede Greenland before Ukraine. I imagine right now diplomats are working to convince Denmark to negotiate a deal with the United States to avoid what happened in Velezuela.

IF the U.S. succeeds in securing Greenland; IF the U.S. invades Columbia and captures its president; IF the U.S. succeeds in toppling Cuba and restructuring it to it’s own designs; IF the U.S. takes direct military action on Mexican cartels; IF these things occur the U.S. will once again turn its eyes toward Manifest Destiny and the idea of Canada as a 51st state.

Canada cannot withstand an American military attack. There would be no need for ground troops. The U.S. could launch an air offensive similar to Iraq and largely succeed in destroying Canada’s meagre military complex.

There is no question of Arctic sovereignty. For decades Canada has known it needed to build infrastructure and defensive capabilities to back up its claims to Arctic sovereignty and Canada has done little to nothing.

Who can stand up to the United States militarily? Most immediately think of China. China has two military bases outside of its borders – one in Djibouti and the other in Cambodia. By comparison the United States operates between 750-850 military bases outside of the continental United States.

To put that in sharper perspective, when you consider every country on Earth except the United States there are between 370-400 military bases being operated. Let that sink in. The United States operates twice as many military bases than every single other country on the planet combined.

PREDICTIONS: Countries of the western hemisphere will bow to the will of the United States to avoid conflict. They will change their trade patterns according to U.S. will. Cuba will collapse; Columbia will likely face the same consequences that Venezuela faced; Denmark will come to “terms” with the United States as regards Greenland. Mexico will work hard to eliminate drug cartels to avoid the real possibility of American military attacks and Canada?

Well Canada will do everything it can to avoid becoming a U.S. state. Canada will bow to virtually every demand as regards trade and Arctic sovereignty.

Europe will focus on Ukraine and the Russian threat while the U.S. removes itself. Israel will eliminate the idea of a Palestinian state and with U.S. assistance redevelop the West Bank and Gaza while Arab countries (especially Egypt) will prepare to take Palestinian refugees.

China will invade Taiwan. Japan will massively build up its military but remain insular. South Korea? This is a big question. A pact with Japan perhaps…a country they loathe but may need to remain sovereign.

Russia will continue to push on Ukraine and likely on other smaller former eastern bloc countries.

Africa remains a large question mark globally.

The world is changing. Might makes right in the new world order. Larger militaries will dominate. The United States will take what it can while it can.

Meanwhile the internal politics of the U.S. will change. Republicans under Trump will seek to change the system so that Democrats have no possibility of returning to power. The movement to an autocratic fascist state will accelerate.

There is much uncertainty but one thing remains clear – in a new era of hot war, sabre rattling and words are becoming meaningless.

The world is changing.