Both American and Canadian politics will be touched on here. I begin with my standard disclaimer that all attempts to predict anything political earlier than a week after an election is foolish.

American – the Americans are keeping things interesting these days with their various attempts at primaries in an effort to provide a thin veil of the appearance of choice. It is clear now barring death by old age (a very real possibiltiy) that the 2024 Presidential Election will come down to Biden vs. Trump. Sure it’s not the same as the upcoming Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson battle but it is bound to be as much of a spectacle.

SIDENOTE: There is no boxer in the modern era who could come close to the sheer ferocity of Mike Tyson in his prime (and I include Mohammd Ali in this) and survive in the ring with him. However – these days one never knows because he is MUCH older and Jake Paul is actually (surprisingly) a very good boxer. I still hope Tyson demolishes him.

SIDESIDENOTE: The above side note is in no way an evaluation of Mike Tyson as a human being and merely meant to be considered within the boundaries of the ring.

So we know the upcoming American election will be Biden Vs. Trump 2 (Electric Boogaloo) and it is bound to be more crazy than anyone can predict.

Trump has challenged Biden to a televised debate.

Brilliant.

Why? Look, I’m about as much a Trump fan as I am a fan of having my testicles stepped on by a cow. However Trump (who has not participated in one debate this election season so far) challenging Biden to a debate creates a no win scenario for Biden.

Why?

You cannot debate Trump. He does not debate he performs to his crowd. If Biden avoids the debate Trump’s team will capitalize on that as fear and weakness. If Biden does choose to debate his handlers will be exceptionally terrified.

I don’t know if you have noticed but Biden’s public appearances have become increasingly scripted. This is to avoid him having a Mitch McConnell moment where he has to reboot in public in front of the cameras.

Debates are not scripted events…not anymore. Debates are free for alls and Trump’s goal here is to showcase his ability to improv for the cameras. This is literally all Trump does – he improvs everything in an unscripted manner, which is why he performs well in debates (to his audience). He can grandstand and attempt to confuse and obfuscate Biden who will do his best to stay on topic and avoid the antics which have made Trump popular.

We will see what happens but the debate challenge was brilliant and the longer it takes Biden to respond the less helpful for him.

I don’t know how the upcomg election will go but it was VERY close last time and Trump is performing better in the polls this time than the same point in the previous election (or I should say Biden is performing worse)…but as I said at the beginning – trying to predict outcomes now is foolish.

ADDENDUM: I watched part of Biden’s State of the Union (the highlights) and he performed exceptionally well. It was, however, exactly the kind of scripted event that he shines at.

Canadian – Polievre vs. Trudeau. I didn’t include Jagmeet Singh because he is more of Robin to Trudeau’s Batman (the George Clooney version). I like Singh…alot. I would vote for him and would love for him to be Prime Minister.

However, in the public space he lacks gravitas, which is weird to say because frankly none of the leaders have gravitas. But Singh has the albatross of Jack Layton’s ghost still hanging around his neck and that holds him back.

For the next 100 years people are still going to be searching for a new Jack Layton – a kindly, wise, old white Canadian man with socialist values and an ability to move you just by looking in your eyes. This is unfortunate because Jack Layton the man, for all his greatness, was nothing compared to Jack Layton the myth that has been created by the NDP and its followers.

So as awesome as Singh is these realities are difficult to overcome. His brilliance has been to essentially create a secret coalition government with the Liberals without calling it a coalition government. Without Singh and the NDP there would be no Pharmacare program. Guranteed. Without Singh and the NDP there would be no Dental Program. Guaranteed. This is entirely their work.

I secretly hope that they continue the shadow coalition after the next election but this assumes another Liberal minority.

Which brings us to Tudeau vs. Polievre.

Trudeau, the man who has made it clear that the only thing that will stop him from running as leader of the Liberal party is an election loss. This puts him in sound step with many a prime minister before him who have suffered from the disease of hubris. Such is the way of Canadian politics.

Polievre. Have you noticed that the quieter and more behind the scenes Polievre gets, the more popular the Conservatives get? It’s true and it is NOT a great position to be in going into the next federal election sometime in the next two years or less. This suggests not so much that the Conservatives are getting more popular but the Liberals are getting less.

Currently as of the beginning of March 2024) the Conservatives lead the Liberals by a healthy margin in the most recent polling by Leger at 41 percent vs. 25 percent for the Liberals and 18 perent for the NDP.

But as the saying goes polls are meaningless (until they’re not).

The challenge here for the Conservatives is that eventually Polievre will have to come out of his cave and into the public eye. He will have to debate and speak to the media and stump the way you must to win a Canadian federal election.

The second he does that the Liberal election machine will be all over him about his views on various extreme perspectives like “Do you suport banning medical interventions for transgender youth?” “How do you like Alberta’s Conservative government and its policies and persepctives?” “What is your stance on medically assisted suicide?” “Why did you ditch the glasses and start wearing spanx t-shirts?” etc.

Polievre has worked hard to not be O’Tooled in that he has catered to the far right of his party and the public both at the leadership convention and since then. Unfortunately for him this means the Liberals and the NDP can constantly paint him as an extremist in a way that the majority of Canadian’s hate and fear.

Still, Canadians have a way of saying “Look, I like this current governing party and its policies but we’re getting bored and would like to toss them out in favour of this less tolerant, slightly hateful group just to make things exciting.”

We’re like that kid who gets bored on a safe and relaxing Sunday afternoon who decides to see how long they can hold their hand in an open flame or how far we can fall without getting hurt. Smart is not the word one uses. The longer we have one person in the role of Prime Minister the more we want to see what it would be like to jump off of five storey building.

There’s lots of uncertainty ahead. The Canadian election is no longer Trudeau’s to lose. It will be a true challenge and it is very possible the Conservtives will pull out a minority. If they do you can be sure it won’t last nearly as long as this current Liberal minority.